American Nations

By Colin Woodard. One of the most persuasive descriptions I’ve read of why the US works (or doesn’t work) the way it does. The theory is that the country was, and is, composed of distinct nations that are often in opposition, politically, culturally and otherwise. Like the Kurds in Iraq, Syria and Turkey, these nations were distinct groups that coexist in a given geography.

A good plan coming out of the pandemic

Vi Hart, a mathematician I follow, has posted a note about the work she and a slew of others have been doing to come up with a nonpartisan, practical plan to get us going after we “flatten the curve”.

It’s remarkably playful for such an important topic, so if you’d rather see the serious plan and all the supporting documentation (and it really is the best, most well-thought-out plan I’ve seen for the US to date), go here instead:

https://www.pandemictesting.org/

I intend to circulate this amongst my local representatives, so they have more than one handle on how to proceed.

Hmm

“The $2 trillion was enough to pay all wages in the U.S. economy for three months (or longer, if we paid a proportion) and hire the unemployed for a full year at living wages.”

From the MarketWatch article. Wow, what happened to the neoliberals?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-post-pandemic-economy-airlines-are-treated-as-utilities-banks-serve-the-people-and-the-government-runs-a-jobs-program-2020-04-17

Testing for Covid

https://quillette.com/2020/04/14/searching-for-a-covid-19-test-in-america/

The author describes the process involved in actively trying to get tested for the disease, given symptoms and history.

The upshot is: we have some idea of the mortality figures for this disease in the US (although there are indications that there are many uncounted deaths of people who never make it into a hospital). We have a very much more approximate idea of infection rates, because we aren’t testing people in a comprehensive way.

Until these two numbers are nailed down within an acceptable range of error, and we can surgically test everyone following contact tracing paths on demand, relaxing the worst-case self-isolation instructions seems like a huge gamble with people’s lives. As a heuristic, I’ve been assigning a confidence level based on the ratio of the two being in the range of 2% or so, based on mortality rates from other parts of the Western world and the more reliable mortality numbers. I see no evidence that either of these numbers can be trusted for the foreseeable future, so I don’t expect to be out of self-isolation anytime soon.