{"id":935,"date":"2020-06-08T20:31:51","date_gmt":"2020-06-08T20:31:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/?p=935"},"modified":"2020-06-08T20:31:51","modified_gmt":"2020-06-08T20:31:51","slug":"2012-is-bullshit-2020-is-when-well-really-be-in-trouble-vice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/?p=935","title":{"rendered":"2012 Is Bullshit; 2020 Is When We\u2019ll Really Be in Trouble &#8211; VICE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Source: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vice.com\/en_us\/article\/8gvbg5\/2012-is-bullshit-2020-is-when-well-really-be-in-trouble-fob-0003000-v19n10?utm_source=reddit.com\">2012 Is Bullshit; 2020 Is When We\u2019ll Really Be in Trouble &#8211; VICE<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Oh oh.\u00a0 This guy studies the underlying structural factors that lead to instability in societies.\u00a0 The article was published in 2012.<\/p>\n<p>I went and looked further into his publications, starting with his <a href=\"http:\/\/peterturchin.com\/cliodynamica\/\">blog<\/a>.\u00a0 He&#8217;s moonlighting from his UConn job to do work at something called the Complexity Science Hub in Austria.\u00a0 Particularly interesting are the <a href=\"http:\/\/peterturchin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/MPF2019.pdf\">slides<\/a> accompanying a <a href=\"http:\/\/peterturchin.com\/cliodynamica\/a-history-of-the-near-future-what-history-tells-us-about-our-age-of-discord\/\">talk<\/a> at a similar institution in Utrecht, which show the underlying analysis that informs his theory:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>wage stagnation (proxied by increasing societal inequality)<\/li>\n<li>more and more &#8220;elites&#8221;, competing for a fixed set of power resources<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>and the possible outcomes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>violence<\/li>\n<li>collapse of the state<\/li>\n<li>many people dropping out of the &#8220;elite&#8221; classes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Going to go find a copy of his book and dig a little deeper.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: 2012 Is Bullshit; 2020 Is When We\u2019ll Really Be in Trouble &#8211; VICE Oh oh.\u00a0 This guy studies the underlying structural factors that lead to instability in societies.\u00a0 The article was published in 2012. I went and looked further into his publications, starting with his blog.\u00a0 He&#8217;s moonlighting from his UConn job to do [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/935"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=935"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/935\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":936,"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/935\/revisions\/936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifmbanm.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}